The headline for corporate profit growth has been very encouraging in the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the combined net profit of listed companies up by 38 per cent year-on-year. However, the earnings distribution has been very lopsided, with most of the growth coming from public-sector oil-marketing companies (OMCs), banks, non-bank lenders, automobile (auto) companies, and cement producers. By comparison, companies from information technology services, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer durables were disappointed, experiencing a sharp slowdown in net sales growth and a relatively muted increase in reported net profit.
The BJP still does not have a majority in Upper House of Parliament, the Rajya Sabha, and this will pose hurdles to the party's legislative reform agenda
Indian rupee is likely to test 76-76.50 levels as a relatively strong greenback, boiling crude prices and COVID headwinds deepen the depreciation bias for the domestic currency, according to experts. One of the significantly-hit Asian currency in recent months amid uncertain economic times, rupee is expected to see a consolidation in the vicinity of the current level before being pulled towards the depreciation bias. While the equity market has been surging with occasional blips, the rupee has mostly been weak against the US dollar in recent months.
'The big power struggle in faraway Europe erupted at a most critical juncture when India has been increasingly sceptical about American policies and statesmanship,' argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
China's GDP jumped a record 18.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2021, riding on strong domestic and foreign demand and aided by recovery from a low base in early 2020 when Covid-19 stalled the world's second-largest economy, according to statistics released on Friday.
Most analysts had predicted a decline in real estate fixed asset investment.
Salary increments in India will touch a five-year high of 9.9 per cent in 2022 as organisations are planning to invest in new-age capabilities to build a resilient workforce amid strong economic recovery and positive business sentiment, a survey said on Wednesday. According to leading global professional services firm Aon's 26th Salary Increase Survey in India, organizations across industries project a 9.9 per cent salary increase in 2022, compared to 9.3 per cent in 2021. The study that analysed data across 1,500 companies from more than 40 industries, noted that the industries with the highest projected salary increases are e-commerce and venture capital, hitech/IT and IT enabled services (ITeS) and life sciences.
While foreign currency rating was retained at Baa2 -- the second-lowest investment grade score -- Moody's also projected a fiscal deficit of 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product in the year through March 2020, a breach of the government's target of 3.3 per cent.
'Enterprises have become more demanding in terms of their productivity expectation from their employees.'
In August, domestic equity markets garnered one of the highest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, despite the US Federal Reserve standing firm on unwinding its stimulus measures to control inflation. FPIs pumped in over Rs 51,000 crore ($6.4 billion) in August, the most since December 2020 and the third-highest tally since March 2020-the month the Covid-19 pandemic roiled global markets. This was the second consecutive month of positive foreign flows. In the preceding nine months, FPIs had yanked out over $32 billion or Rs 2.2 trillion.
Equity investors have become poorer by more than Rs 18.74 lakh crore as the market continued to remain bearish for the fifth session on the trot on Thursday. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,158.08 points or 2.14 per cent to end below the 53,000-level at 52,930.31 points on Thursday. Markets have been falling for five straight sessions and the BSE benchmark has tumbled 2,771.92 points or 4.97 per cent during this period.
India is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in 2015 and 6.5 per cent in 2016, when it is likely to cross China's projected growth rate of 6.3 per cent, the IMF said.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
India's second largest IT services company Infosys on Thursday reported a 3.1 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit to Rs 6,215 crore for the September 2023 quarter. The earnings (before minority interest) of the Bengaluru-based company stood at Rs 6,026 crore in the year-ago period. The company - which competes in the IT services market with TCS, Wipro, HCL Technologies and others - saw its revenue rising 6.7 per cent to Rs 38,994 crore for the just-ended September quarter.
On the volume side, the number of M&A and PE deals was 110 in July, 15 per cent lower from 130 in July 2018.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent in a bid to tame inflation, which has remained above its tolerance level for the past 11 months. With the latest hike, the repo rate or the short-term lending rate at which banks borrow from the central bank now has crossed 6 per cent. This is the fifth consecutive rate hike after a 40 basis points increase in May and 50 basis points hike each in June, August and September.
According to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today by ManpowerGroup, the hiring pace for the upcoming quarter has rebound from both, last quarter and a year ago at this time.
Nearly half of the 20 indexes polled globally are now expected to end the year lower than where they started
Monetary Policy- Easing expected to happen later this financial year.
There seems to be no respite for Adani Group companies from the market carnage. All 10 stocks belonging to the conglomerate came under a fresh bout of intense selling pressure on Wednesday as the group's debt levels and repayment capabilities continued to plague investors. Analysts said investors are also concerned about whether the group will be able to maintain its pace of growth, given the current turmoil that has wiped out over Rs 12 trillion in market capitalisation (m-cap) since the start of the year.
According to Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) report, Domestic capital markets are likely to remain volatile in the September-November period due to factors like US Fed's policy action, second quarter corporate earnings and Bihar state elections.
'It will be best for investors to have a systematic investment plan in mid-cap and small-cap funds with a three-/five-year horizon.'
The laggards in the Sensex kitty were Vedanta, Tata Steel, M&M, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, L&T, Asian Paint and HDFC
India's services sector activity witnessed a sharp upturn in August on the back of stronger gains in new business, ongoing improvements in demand conditions and job creation, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from July's four-month low of 55.5 to 57.2 in August, amid a quicker upturn in business activity and the sharpest rise in employment for over 14 years. For the thirteenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
'...Market-linked debentures, high-value insurance, exemptions from capital gains by investment in real estate, etc.' 'So, there are a number of measures directed at collecting a fair share from higher income individuals.'
Uncertainty is emerging as the only certainty, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das as he emphasised on continued policy support at the December MPC meet during which members expressed concerns over spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus, as per the minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Wednesday. After three days of deliberations, the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on December 8 unanimously voted for status quo on policy rates for the ninth consecutive time. At the meeting, the RBI Governor said risks stalking the global economy have amplified with rapid spread of the virus mutations, including the Omicron variant, leading to countries scrambling for restrictions.
Navy chief Admiral R Hari Kumar on Monday flagged concerns over growing geo-political power play in the Indo-Pacific, and noted that the US-China rivalry in the region is likely to be a "marathon".
The country's new economic roadmap highlights the importance of creating a virtuous cycle of investment, savings and exports in order to sustain rapid economic growth over the next five years.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. In a report, the global rating agency said the challenges for banking sector posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave in the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). "Fitch Ratings revised down India's real GDP for FY22 by 280bp to 10 per cent, underlining our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation in FY22," it said. Fitch believes that rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence; however, without it, economic recovery would remain vulnerable to further waves and lockdowns.
India remains an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) on account of healthy prospects of economic growth and its skilled workforce, according to a survey by Deloitte. A large proportion of international business leaders remain confident in India's short- and long-term prospects and are readying plans to make additional and first-time investments in the country, it said on Tuesday. "The survey, which questioned 1,200 business leaders of multinational corporations in the US, UK, Japan and Singapore, found that India remains an attractive destination for investments, scoring highly for its skilled workforce and prospects for economic growth," the survey - India's FDI Opportunity - said.
Janet Yellen is guiding the Federal Reserve towards its first rate rise in a decade armed with traditional economic models that some economists worry could fail her in a world of massive money printing and near zero rates.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said the credit downturn arising out of COVID-19 will be short-lived but most economies will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until 2022. In the year since the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, the virus has disrupted the global economy and triggered a credit downturn accompanied by a spike in bond defaults. "The credit challenges arising from COVID-19 have been substantial, but the credit downturn likely will be relatively short-lived. "Risks remain more significant for the sectors most vulnerable to restrictions on their normal activities," Moody's said in a global report in coronavirus. Stating that most economies will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until 2022, Moody's said it expects a slow and bumpy global recovery and uncertainty around the macroeconomic outlook remains much higher than usual.
Rejecting IMF and World Bank's "unduly" pessimistic projections, Prime Minister's key economic advisory council chairman C Rangarajan on Thursday exuded confidence that the growth would be around 5.5 per cent in the current fiscal.
Billionaire Gautam Adani's embattled conglomerate said its balance sheet is "very healthy" and is laser focused on continuing business momentum, as it looked to reassure investors to keep faith in the conglomerate despite a share rout triggered by a damning report by a US short-seller. Group CFO Jugeshinder (Robbie) Singh in an earnings call said the group is confident of its internal controls, compliance and corporate governance. Separately, it released a compendium of group companies to highlight that it has adequate cash reserves and has ability to refinance debt.
US rate hike fear keeps Asian firms in check; India most upbeat.
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IT market is forecast to grow 2.8 per cent in dollar terms and 5.1 per cent in constant currency from 2012, Gartner said in a statement.
The government will unveil the Consumer Price Index data and the Wholesale Price Index data for August on Monday.
A way out of the economic slump is to revisit the template of 15 years ago and follow its constituents, recommends Ajay Shah.
US State Department's report said that this has resulted in many investors retreating slightly from their once forward-leaning support of the BJP-led government
If the projections come true, then India would regain the tag of the fastest growing major economy of the world, crossing China with more than 0.7 percentage point in 2018 and an impressive 1.2 percentage point growth lead in 2019.
