Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. In a report, the global rating agency said the challenges for banking sector posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave in the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). "Fitch Ratings revised down India's real GDP for FY22 by 280bp to 10 per cent, underlining our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation in FY22," it said. Fitch believes that rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence; however, without it, economic recovery would remain vulnerable to further waves and lockdowns.
Monetary Policy- Easing expected to happen later this financial year.
The laggards in the Sensex kitty were Vedanta, Tata Steel, M&M, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki, L&T, Asian Paint and HDFC
India remains an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) on account of healthy prospects of economic growth and its skilled workforce, according to a survey by Deloitte. A large proportion of international business leaders remain confident in India's short- and long-term prospects and are readying plans to make additional and first-time investments in the country, it said on Tuesday. "The survey, which questioned 1,200 business leaders of multinational corporations in the US, UK, Japan and Singapore, found that India remains an attractive destination for investments, scoring highly for its skilled workforce and prospects for economic growth," the survey - India's FDI Opportunity - said.
According to Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) report, Domestic capital markets are likely to remain volatile in the September-November period due to factors like US Fed's policy action, second quarter corporate earnings and Bihar state elections.
The country's new economic roadmap highlights the importance of creating a virtuous cycle of investment, savings and exports in order to sustain rapid economic growth over the next five years.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said the credit downturn arising out of COVID-19 will be short-lived but most economies will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until 2022. In the year since the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020, the virus has disrupted the global economy and triggered a credit downturn accompanied by a spike in bond defaults. "The credit challenges arising from COVID-19 have been substantial, but the credit downturn likely will be relatively short-lived. "Risks remain more significant for the sectors most vulnerable to restrictions on their normal activities," Moody's said in a global report in coronavirus. Stating that most economies will not return to pre-pandemic activity levels until 2022, Moody's said it expects a slow and bumpy global recovery and uncertainty around the macroeconomic outlook remains much higher than usual.
Janet Yellen is guiding the Federal Reserve towards its first rate rise in a decade armed with traditional economic models that some economists worry could fail her in a world of massive money printing and near zero rates.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for FY23 to 7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.2 per cent mainly on account of higher inflation and a tight monetary policy. India's economy grew 13.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022-23, reflecting strong growth in services, ADB said in its second supplement to Asian Development Outlook Report 2022 (ADO 2022). "However, GDP growth is revised down from ADO 2022's forecasts to 7 per cent for FY2022 (ending March 2023) and 7.2 per cent for FY2023 (ending March 2024) as price pressures are expected to adversely impact domestic consumption, and sluggish global demand and elevated oil prices will likely be a drag on net exports," ADB said.
Rejecting IMF and World Bank's "unduly" pessimistic projections, Prime Minister's key economic advisory council chairman C Rangarajan on Thursday exuded confidence that the growth would be around 5.5 per cent in the current fiscal.
US rate hike fear keeps Asian firms in check; India most upbeat.
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IT market is forecast to grow 2.8 per cent in dollar terms and 5.1 per cent in constant currency from 2012, Gartner said in a statement.
In a tightening cycle, a premature pause in monetary policy action would be a costly policy error, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das opined while voting along with five other members of the MPC for raising the key lending rate by 35 basis points earlier this month, according to the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday. Prior to the December hike in repo rate, the RBI had raised the key short-term lending rate by 190 bps in four tranche.
A way out of the economic slump is to revisit the template of 15 years ago and follow its constituents, recommends Ajay Shah.
The government will unveil the Consumer Price Index data and the Wholesale Price Index data for August on Monday.
The Indian rupee is down nearly 2 per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of January 2019. Experts attribute the Indian rupee's relatively poor performance to a sharper-than-expected fall in economic growth in India.
In addition to the negative sentiment as a consequence of changes announced in the Union Budget 2023-24 concerning tax treatment for debt repayment distribution, concerns about hiring slowdown and its leasing impact, as well as higher interest rates, could blight the sector in the near term.
If the projections come true, then India would regain the tag of the fastest growing major economy of the world, crossing China with more than 0.7 percentage point in 2018 and an impressive 1.2 percentage point growth lead in 2019.
In the Sensex pack, HDFC, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Asian Paints, Mahindra and Mahindra and TCS were the prominent gainers. On the other hand, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra and SBI were among the major laggards. On the other hand, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, HUL, Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank were trading in the red.
US State Department's report said that this has resulted in many investors retreating slightly from their once forward-leaning support of the BJP-led government
Asian Development Bank on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY2019 to 5.1 per cent on slowing job prospects, rural distress exacerbated by poor harvest and credit crunch. Growth in FY2020 is likely to recover thanks to this support, low oil prices, and a weakening rupee, but risks to the projections remain tilted to the downside, it said on India.
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said cryptocurrencies are akin to 'a world of Caribbean pirates' in the absence of a centralised regulatory authority and are yet to pass the test of a fiat currency. He said that the government is pursuing a 'high-wire balancing act' to ensure that the gains in growth, inflation, and rupee stability of the last four years are not frittered away. He said the recent development in Terra-Luna cryptocurrency, which witnessed a massive meltdown last month, is a 'very important cautionary tale'.
Global growth, according to IMF, likely to be lower at 3.3%
The Sensex posted its biggest single-day jump in over a decade at 1,921 points and investors' wealth soared by a staggering Rs 6.8 lakh crore after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivered a surprise cut in corporate tax rates on Friday.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.8 per cent saying the second Covid wave may derail the budding recovery in the economy and credit conditions.
After Rajasthan, petrol price on Thursday crossed the Rs 100 per litre mark in Madhya Pradesh after fuel rates were increased for the tenth day in a row. Petrol price was hiked by 34 paise per litre and diesel by 32 paise, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. While branded or additive-laced petrol, which attracts higher taxes, had crossed the Rs 100-mark in some places in states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, regular petrol crossed the physiological mark in Sriganganagar town of Rajasthan on Wednesday, and on Thursday it went past that mark in Madhya Pradesh. In Anuppur of Madhya Pradesh, petrol is priced at Rs 100.25 per litre and diesel at Rs 90.35. Fuel prices differ from state to state depending on the incidence of local taxes such as VAT and freight charges.
'China's economy continues to slow and the US Fed may still hike rates before the end of the year.'
'Investors should keep them on their radar and invest over a longer time frame, and expect some of these companies to bite the dust.'
Facebook's parent company Meta announced on Tuesday it will fire another 10,000 people, implementing a second round of jobs cuts after it slashed 11,000 positions in November last year, to improve its financial performance in a "difficult environment". Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg said in a post that overall "we expect to reduce our team size by around 10,000 people and to close around 5,000 additional open roles that we haven't yet hired." The company has said that in its "Year of Efficiency", the company aims to make itself "a better technology company and to improve our financial performance in a difficult environment so we can execute our long-term vision."
After rallying over 300 points, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 169.14 points, or 0.42 per cent, higher at 40,581.71. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty settled 61.65 points, or 0.52 per cent, higher at 11,971.80.
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
JP Morgan has downgraded the Indian information technology sector to 'underweight' as it believes the heydays of the sector are over. Rising margin headwinds in the near-term and the revenue headwinds in the medium-term from a potential macro slowdown, Ankur Rudra and Bhavik Mehta of JP Morgan said in the report, will mean that the sector's earnings upgrade cycle is behind. "We see peak revenue growth behind us and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins trending down from inflation, mean revision.
Yes, India needs desperate measures to kick-start growth. But selling off its lungs to the highest bidder to hack away cannot be the way out, says Sumit Bhattacharya.
The latest survey is based on a sampling of 565 executives.
Growth in India is expected to remain strong and stable in 2015
'India has benefited from lower oil prices and remains the fastest-growing large economy in the world.'
Whereas the headline growth rate appears very respectable, India needs faster to growth to generate jobs.
'In 2016, we had De-Mon and in 2017, we had GST.' 'The combined impact of these two started showing up in 2019 and 2020.' 'COVID-19 only added insult to injury.'
Capital goods shares continued to trade firm in late noon despite weak market trend on the back of encouraging core sector growth in February.
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